829 infected per day: is it still a plateau or is it the second wave?
Whatever the day, Ukraine sets an anti-record. Does this mean that we are still far from the end of the epidemic? And what will happen next?
Ukraine once set a new record against 829 people infected with a coronavirus. Such an increase exceeds the world average. After almost the whole of May, Ukraine was on the so-called “plateau” with a number of cases detected from 350 to 500 per day, no one expected it in June. On the contrary, there was some hope that in summer the virus could reduce its spread or even disappear like normal flu. Well, it is certain that with appropriate security measures after an extended shelf, we were finally expecting a decline. But, as it becomes clear now, this infection is not too afraid of the heat outside the window, but it reacts immediately to any weakening of the quarantine. Therefore, the increase in the number of detected cases of coronavirus has posed new questions – is this a continuation of the first wave of morbidity or are we already witnessing the second wave? And how will the situation evolve after such anti-records? Ukrinform was looking for answers to these and other relevant questions.
Is this the first or already the second wave of COVID-19 incidence in Ukraine?
Such a question, given the latest statistics, asked Ukrinform to the doctor-epidemiologist, president of the public organization “Infection control in Ukraine” Andriy Oleksandryn. Answer: while we are still on the first wave of incidence, which continues to increase. “This is because today we do not see effective measures that would be taken to prevent infection while we were closed for two months in quarantine by the central executive body – the Ministry of Health. , government purchases, ineffective and of poor quality, as they do not affect the safety of medical personnel (according to the epidemiologist, it makes no sense to spend money on expensive biosafety suits , while there are still no high quality respirators. – NDE) Unfortunately, corruption is flourishing, and I do not see any improvement yet. Therefore, we should expect that in the future close, we are reaching more than 1,000 patients with Covid-19 per day, and these statistics will only increase in the future. There has not yet been a second wave of incidence in Ukraine, it is necessary to s ‘probably expect it in the middle or end of November’, ex replied Andrei Alexandrin.
A few days ago, such conclusions were expressed on the ZiK channel by Olga Golubovskaya, doctor honoris causa of Ukraine, head of the department of infectious diseases of the A. A. Bogomolets National Medical University. “I don’t think it’s a peak and it’s the start of a new wave. These are ordinary peak shards and they are related to testing. In other words, the information expressed by the Ministry of Health does not mean not that these patients were detected in the last day. Because that means that the number of studies received has increased. But we have to understand that the epidemic has just started, in the fall, we all expect an increase in the incidence rate, “said Golubovskaya.
Why incidence is increasing: an explanation from the Ministry of Health and the cost center
The reason for the increase in incidence in recent days in Ukraine is just one: citizens’ non-compliance with epidemic security rules. At each briefing, the Minister of Health, Maxim Stepanov, notes. During a briefing on June 18, Ukrainian health official Viktor Lyashko confirmed the minister’s remarks on the basis of summary statistics for the whole spread of the coronavirus in Ukraine. “There is no clear trend in Ukraine where the relationship can be traced: an increase in the number of tests – an increase in the number of cases (…) Trends in the increase in incidence are clearly visible with the reduction in quarantine (…) We can clearly see that after Ukraine eased quarantine and switched to the deterrent strategy, we started to increase the number of cases, “said Victor Lyashko, showing the corresponding calendar with the data.
In a comment to Ukrinform, the head of the infectious disease surveillance department at the Public Health Center, Roman Rodina, also said that the increase in incidence was not associated with an increase in the number of tests, as the number of suspected cases per day did not increase and went from 1000 to 1200. He explains why the extension of tests is not yet possible. “We are testing those who have fever, cough, pneumonia. If we expand the testimony for testing, for example, we will test all people with signs of SARS, the number of tests will increase, but the effectiveness of these tests will not change, but the load on the laboratory will increase “, – says Roman Rodina. And explains why it is difficult to predict the evolution of the epidemic in the future. “Mathematical predictions are made on the database at a specific time. But not a single mathematical forecast takes into account situations that may affect the incidence in addition. For example, strengthening quarantine measures can help reduce the number of patients, and not a single forecast will take it into account. And vice versa when people do not respect the restrictions, the forecast that people will comply with epidemiological safety rules is not confirmed “, notes the specialist .
He adds that simple rules are not followed in public transport – both on the carrier side, when minibuses and buses are crowded, and by people who wear the same masks anyway. “The mode of contact transmission is precisely due to close contact – that is, if one person next to another is at a distance of one meter for 15 minutes or more. Close and long contact is insured in the meter or the bus. Therefore, one thing is certain for now: if people continue to ignore safety measures, then the increase in the number of patients continues. So I want to emphasize once again : quarantine is relaxed but not canceled, “explains Roman Rodyna.
How many asymptomatic patients in Ukraine?
But there is still no answer to this question. Roman Rodyna explains that this is due to the fact that the surveillance system has so far been based on the identification of patients with symptoms of the disease. “If the doctor contacted by the patient sees symptoms of Covid-19, he reports to the regional centers a suspicion of coronavirus. Then the case is examined, contacts are made. Since the doctor reported suspicions, the case is If the test data is positive, this case is confirmed and it is precisely these cases that the Minister reports during the briefing. The standard of care for patients with Covid-19 is not intended for asymptomatic carriers. And no monitoring system can be designed to look for asymptomatic patients. can be detected when an ELISA test is performed on antibodies. We only started doing this test a few weeks, so for the moment we are accumulating enough material for such an analysis, “explains the head of the public health center for the surveillance of infectious diseases at the public health center.
This is at least strange – why in Ukraine there is still no data on the percentage of asymptomatic carriers. Many countries, including the Russian Federation, publish such a figure every day – what percentage of “positive” people tested have no symptoms of the disease. After all, these people are the most dangerous in that they infect those who suspect nothing.
Ukrainian health official Viktor Lyashko during a briefing
Meanwhile, as Viktor Lyashko said during a briefing, according to a WHO study, in all countries of the world, on all people tested, on average 30% of cases of coronavirus are detected. That is, everyone else who is infected has no symptoms or does not seek medical help. He also noted that, according to the modeling of the Kiev School of Economics, 132,000 people can suffer from coronavirus infection on average in Ukraine. “These data are not confirmed, this is a model situation. To confirm these data, we are starting a large population-based ELISA study that will selectively examine the presence of immunity among people across Especially in the towns and villages that have been significantly affected by epidemics and where there were many infected medical workers, “said the chief medical officer.
In the meantime, there is still no evidence of asymptomatic cases in Ukraine, we recall that the time of the current epidemic suggests that each of us should be considered a potentially infected person, which means that we must all wear masks, wash our hands more often and keep our distance. Then we will be healthy!
Julia Gorban, Kiev
According to the materials: ukrinform.ru