Awaiting World Trade in 2020 – WTO Forecast

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World Trade Organization announces new forecast

The world awaits trade in 2020. Photo: ieep.eu

World trade declined by 3% in the first quarter of 2020 compared to the same period in the previous one due to the negative impact of the coronavirus epidemic and quarantine restrictions imposed in most countries of the world. The World Trade Organization (WTO) announced such figures in its new report.

The World Trade Organization predicts that global trade will decline by 18.5% in the second quarter compared to the second quarter of 2019. The organization’s director general, Robert Azeved, called the decline “the biggest in history”, but noted that everything could be very bad. According to him, political decisions will play a significant role in the restoration of production and trade and the economy as a whole.

“Political decisions have played an important role in reducing the setback to production and trade, and they continue to play an important role in setting the pace of economic recovery. For rapid growth in production and trade volume in 2021, fiscal, monetary and trade policies must move in one direction.

In general, according to the pessimistic forecast of the World Trade Organization, the COVID-19 pandemic may cause a 32% reduction in world trade and its economic outcomes in 2020 compared to 2019. According to optimistic forecasts, the decrease would be 13%. To meet an optimistic forecast, world trade should grow by 2.5% each quarter by the end of the year.

World trade volume: Q1 2005 – 1 class. 2021. Photo: wto.org

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Earlier, the Monetary Policy Committee (ILC) of the National Bank of Ukraine reported that the negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic could be deeper and longer than predicted, posing a significant risk to the economy. Experts said consumption will decrease due to unemployment and weak wage growth. In addition, investment demand will be “repressed”.

Read: How developing countries fight coronacrosis – IMF data

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