End of April, number of people infected in Ukraine could reach 60,000 – experts

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End of April, number of people infected in Ukraine could reach 60,000 - experts

The maximum incidence of COVID-19 in Ukraine is expected from April 14 to 23.

Witness the forecasts of the World Data Center of the NTU “Kiev Polytechnic Institute”, the press service of the university.

“The results of the scenario modeling show that for Ukraine, the function of the rate of change in the number of cases of COVID-19 reaches its maximum of 51 to 52 days from the first registered patient, namely in the second half April: April 22-23 After reaching this maximum due to strict quarantine measures the country should “break” the previous trend and start to decrease the rate of growth in the number of cases. According to the pessimistic scenario, end April, the number of people infected could reach 60 thousand, and fishing losses can reach 4500. According to the optimistic scenario, which is possible if a number of important circumstances coincide, including effective actions of the authorities, these indicators could be cut at least three times, “the report said.

The World Data Center “Geoinformatics and Sustainable Development” based on the NTU “Kiev Polytechnic Institute” operates under the auspices of the International Science Council. It is one of 53 global data centers located in 13 countries that accumulate, analyze and process large amounts of scientific data of various natures (Big Data). Recently, one of the most pressing tasks of the International Science Council and its subordinate global data centers has become the study of the coronavirus pandemic worldwide and the application of advanced scientific achievements to overcome it.

Working on this strategy, Ukrainian scientists from the World Geoinformatics and Sustainable Development Data Center analyzed the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the Ukrainian economy, developed a predictive mathematical model, performed a computer simulation of this phenomenon and developed scenarios for the possible development of events.

The results of this study can be used by the Ukrainian authorities to develop an action plan to prevent a pandemic and overcome its consequences.

See also: “We are on the brink of a peak”: Stepanov points out that it is too early to speak of the end of the quarantine

WDC-Ukraine’s COVID-19 dashboard, an interactive thematic panel to track and forecast the distribution of COVID-19 in Ukraine, has also been published on the website of the Global Geoinformatics and Sustainable Development Data Center.

Dashboards are developed on the basis of data from WHO, the JHU Center for Systems Science and Engineering, the office of the President of Ukraine and the National Health Service of Ukraine.

As reported by Ukrinform, in Ukraine, on the morning of Tuesday, April 7, 1,462 cases of COVID-19 infection were recorded, 45 people died, 28 patients recovered. During the day, 143 new cases were recorded.

According to the materials: ukrinform.ru

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