Further replenishment of food reserves will depend on imports, crops and demand during the epidemic.
A recent investigation by the Antimonopoly Committee of Ukraine about the huge increase in the price of products in the country’s supermarkets has revealed that many retail chains and suppliers simply panic and exploit Ukrainians. For your own benefit.
But is there a need to exceed normal procurement standards and will Ukraine have enough food stocks? After all, quarantine can last longer than we would like.
First, it is important to assess the provision of socially important food products, including the minimum list of goods that a person needs to obtain sufficient calories and a vitamin and mineral complex. Typically this is a basic set designed to guarantee inexperienced but streamlined survival.
Today, Ukrainian supermarkets are well provided with social products. Also, in April this type of food store has increased significantly – the arsenal of butter increased by 48%, pasta – by 47%, by buckwheat and sunflower oil – by 36%, rice by 42%. , And another 39% more milk.
With a closer look, the monthly consumption of today’s food stocks is average. So, butter and rice will last for 20 days, sugar and flour for two weeks, but a buckwheat is stocked for future use – that’s enough for 32 days. Further replenishment will depend on imports, crops and demand.
Despite the quarantine measures, food products must be delivered without any hindrance and on schedule. Last month, Ukraine distributed far more products than usual – as much as 40 thousand tons. It is mainly related dairy products, finished cereal products and honey. According to the Customs Service, in general, food imports rose by $ 1 billion – up by 31%.
Due to coronavirus, the import of fruits and vegetables is more affected than others, especially when it comes to small industries with a small number of employees. Due to the high incidence, the share of employees may be on sick leave, which affects the work of suppliers.
There may be a shortage of citrus fruits in Ukraine due to supply from Spain and the closure of the Turkish market. Since suppliers can only be replaced by importing fruit from South America, which takes longer, products such as lemons may disappear from supermarket shelves for a while.
There are some risks to the crop. Due to the specific weather conditions and low amount of rainfall, this year’s crop yields may be significantly deteriorated. But at the same time, before the new crop arrives, there will be 3 million tonnes of wheat in stock, so there is no reason to fear the lack of bread and flour products.
Much further depends on climate trends: if summer is hot, grain production may decline by 10%, and the amount of agricultural exports is already reduced by 20 million tons. Given the possibility of an increase in the price of agricultural products, a deep increase in prices for social products is possible.
But the main thing is that food demand is projected to decline in the near future. Already, Ukrainians are buying half the amount of oil, buckwheat, lard, flour and onions. Over time, purchasing power may decline amid economic changes caused by the epidemic. Availability and low demand for food stocks increase the duration of food security and positively affect the price policy of supermarkets. That is, products last longer and cost less.
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