If quarantine persists until mid-June, the country may lose 7% of GDP
During the online seminar Cbonds Congress, head of the analytical department of investment company Concorde Capital Oleksandr Parashchy said that quarantine every month next month would add 2.5 percentage points to the decline in Ukrainian GDP.
Ukraine’s real GDP will fall to 4.5% in 2020, if quarantine measures and the resumption of activity after the May holidays will be completely weakened.
“It is still difficult to estimate how long the quarantine will last, but I propose the following formula: The base scenario is minus 4.5%, plus minus 2.5 percentage points every month. That is, if quarantine occurs in June. If it stays in the middle, then we will get minus 7%, ”Parashiki said.
The expert predicts that the average annual exchange rate will be UAH $ 27.5 per dollar due to improvements in the country’s foreign trade balance and “zarobitchans” money transfer, which transfers to Ukraine $ 12 billion annually. This year, transfers from abroad to Ukrainians will be less, because many. They lost their jobs and returned home.
Also important factors that may affect the course are the “inclusion of the NBU printing press” to Paraschi and other articles in the Financial Account of Ukraine. According to the analyst, the printing press is starting, which is estimated at a government inflation forecast of 11%.
However, do not forget that the haste to remove quarantine caused by the deployment of a coronovirus pandemic could double the economic losses.
Summary PAYSPACE magazine
Recall, “National Bank does not plan to finance the budget through operations with government bonds (OVDP) in the primary or secondary market. The effects of direct budget financing in the form of a devaluation-inflation spiral are well known to Ukrainians who remember the 90s. Therefore, there is no point in reversing this practice, ”said Yakov Smoly, head of the National Bank.
In addition, he said that the National Bank would continue to use its instruments to ensure price stability, with the discount rate also regulated, as it had done in the past.
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By content: Interfax-Ukraine