KPI predicts possible pandemic decline in late May
The FORSIGHT COVID-19 project team from the KPI’s World Data Center “Geoinformatics and sustainable development” named after Igor Sikorsky predicts a possible beginning of the decline of the coronavirus pandemic during the third decade of May, and until there the development of the pandemic will be linear.
This was reported by the KPI press service.
It should be noted that for Ukraine in the fortnight period (05/06/20 – 05/20/20) the nature of the pandemic develops more clearly linear with the level of “plateau” – 400-550 news infections per day.
“According to the results of predictive modeling by the FORSIGHT COVID-19 project team, this nature of the development of the process can last until the third decade of May 2020, during which the peak of the pandemic will probably arrive. this, the pandemic can probably decrease (the number of people recovered daily will be regularly more than the number of people infected daily) “, – said in a statement.
Scientists noted that for the city of Kiev, during the fortnight period (05/06/20 – 05/20/20), the pandemic’s development process is even more unstable with a likely decrease in its volatility and a clearer linear character next week with a “plateau” level of 40-50 new infections per day.
The mean absolute error as a percentage of the forecasts made over the fortnight period (May 6, May 20-20, 20) does not exceed 2.2%.
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“The number of people recovering daily in Ukraine approaches the number of people infected daily (05/14/20, this balance was even positive for one day). The project team expects this balance to become regular positive during the third dekad of May, which will confirm the beginning of the decline of the pandemic. ” KPI scientists.
As reported by Ukrinform, as of May 16, 17,858 cases of COVID-19 had been laboratory confirmed in Ukraine. 528 new cases were recorded per day. 4,906 patients recovered, 497 fatal cases.
According to the materials: ukrinform.ru