Quarantine has no economic impact, but saves lives
The Kiev School of Economics conducted a study “How much does quarantine cost in Ukraine?” According to KSE estimates, without quarantine in Ukraine there would have been 120 thousand deaths from coronovirus and 5 million cases.
Removing quarantine could result in losses to Ukraine’s economy of about $ 50 billion. KSE proposes to consider losses in two ways: in the cost of human life and in percentage of GDP.
In the first option, you need to take 120 thousand lives which can be lost due to complete elimination of Ukraine quarantine (data calculated according to the KSE model) and convert them into money. For Ukraine, a life cost was $ 454 thousand (calculated by scientist Kil Viscucci, adopting American indicators for Ukrainian realities). Accordingly, losses could reach $ 50–54 billion.
In the second option, the IMF’s forecast for declining GDP and the consensus forecast of the Ministry of Economy are taken as the basis. The KSE says that the University of Wyoming’s methodology is used to estimate losses, and the losses themselves amount to $ 50-54 billion.
KSE vice-president Natalia Shapalal said, “But in reality, a lot more people will die, because the health system will come to a standstill, with resuscitation only on patients with coronovirus.”
The net economic impact of quarantine is almost nil. But thanks to quarantine, it was possible to summarize the KSE, to save people’s lives.
The reference PAYSPACE magazine
Remember that by now the opening of shopping and entertainment centers can be an additional threat to the population. It was said by the vice president of Kiev City State Administration Valentin Mondrievsky.
“Shopping centers are not open yet, as we monitor events. Today, the mayor spoke again about the number of patients in the city, and Dynamics so far tells us that the opening of a shopping center, where it is not yet possible to ensure that the required number of people is on one standard, There may be an additional danger. Therefore, we are studying the situation, ”said Mondrigski.
Read: Transition to an adaptive model: what will work in Ukraine from 22 May