The deputy head of the Ministry of Health – the chief medical officer of health Viktor Lyashko estimates that if Ukraine went into quarantine a week later, then in the country there would be at least 17,000 people infected with coronavirus.
He said so in an interview with HB magazine.
“If we look at our mathematical modeling, which was done at the end of February, then as of April 12, we should have about 17 thousand coronavirus patients. Now we have a little over 3.3 thousand. We will more slowly than other countries, even our neighbors to the European Union. This is the effect of preventive measures, “he said.
For example, according to Lyashko, from 100 to 1,000 patients, Ukraine died in nine days. Italy – in five days.
“Now let’s see how long we will go from 1,000 to 10,000. Spain, Italy have gone in five to seven days, and from 10,000 to 20,000 and so on are getting faster and faster. Because the number of contacts is increasing We have the first thousand (of which COVID-19 was discovered) was April 4, “said the chief doctor.
According to Lyashko, Ukraine is expected to reach the level of 10,000 patients by the end of April.
“It is normal if we reach 10,000 at the end of April. The most pessimistic scenario we discussed earlier is 80%, then 50%, then 25% of the population will contract the coronavirus. 25% of Ukrainians are infected, how many beds are in the infection rooms “will we need them? We have seen it all, like Italy, Spain, China, 5% of all patients need intensive care. They are related to mechanical ventilation or oxygen. And we looked at our possibilities. When we infect 25% of the population (it will not be simultaneous) we expect that at peak infection in an approximately 64,000 people will be infected. And, imagine, that day is coming. 64,000 people end up in intensive care units. But in fact, there are 5,000 beds in these departments of the country, “he said.
Lyashko also pointed out that today, the “first wave” hospitals are equipped with nearly 2,000 ventilation devices, and at the current level of the epidemic, this is enough.
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“We prepared artificial lung ventilation devices in 1994 in first wave hospitals near each bed in the intensive care units to which oxygen is supplied. That is, we are now ready for the first wave to simultaneously receive 1994 patients in therapy. Today we have 8% of these IVL. We test all patients with pneumonia for coronavirus disease, “said the chief doctor.
As indicated, in Ukraine, as of April 15, 3,764 cases of coronavirus infection had been recorded, including 392 per day.
At the same time, 108 cases were fatal, 143 patients recovered.
According to the materials: ukrinform.ru