It seems that the decision not to delay the amendments to the Russian Constitution has been taken. Like at the very beginning, there is no clear answer to just one question – where are we going? What has happened that does not allow to postpone this formal ritual to a later date? If the June vote takes place, it will become a very curious political clause on Freud for the authorities. They wanted to show their strength to the whole world, but they actually manifest fear and self-doubt.
With this “popular” vote, a sort of silly story happened. At first, for unexplained reasons – it is too late to discuss now – four years before the expiration of Putin’s term, they decided by a cavalry attack to “withdraw the subject” of his political future from the “agenda present “and formally give him the legal possibility to rule practically for life. I am not debating now whether he intends to seize this opportunity or not. Either way, he decided to make sure of it and long before his current term expired.
Then, for even more obscure reasons, this action was arranged in the most perverse way, playing an entire performance in the mind of Boris Godunov, presenting everything like the impromptu of a naive cosmic soul. But it’s not enough. Instead of simply accepting the amendments and ending this comedy with constitutional changes, they attached the final scene to it with a “choir” chanting “popular approval”. Apparently, I really wanted to sew a fig leaf of legitimacy to the exposed causal point of the future rule. At the same time, the authors of the script did not take into account that a king with a fig leaf would be even worse than a simple naked king – much like a man dressed in a tuxedo on a nudist beach . Nevertheless, despite everything, we decided to play this game until the end.
But here, as often happens with sophisticated projects, Her Majesty intervened and the plan “broke” in the most unexpected place. We had to speed up the pandemic exactly during the month which, out of modesty, was allowed to simulate the discussion before the vote. The Kremlin was forced to make a very difficult choice: either we push the amendments, but we seem inhuman, or, on the contrary, we look human, but we cling to the amendments. In the confusion of the March confusion, they did not take any risks and chose humanism. As a result, the constitutional theme remained open.
It seems where is the problem? After all, everything is under control, Putin is a demi-god, the opposition is crushed and fragmented, the people have been put in a state of animation suspended by propaganda, it does not burn anywhere, and if you believe in Kremlin statements, he doesn’t even smoke. There seems to be no place to rush, as long as the presidential election has not lasted four years, and even until the legislative elections for another whole year. If the constitutional amendments are not adopted before the start of autumn or even before the end of the year, then absolutely nothing will happen. Putin officially has a lot of political time – a half-full term for the President. Trump hasn’t been re-elected yet, but will still be leaving sooner than Putin, anyway.
At the same time, there does not seem to be anything of fundamental importance to the authorities in these amendments, apart from the “zeroing” of Putin’s term. There, of course, they threw all kinds of constitutional waste on the pretext of de jure legalizing all that ugliness which de facto had long been the norm in Putin’s Russia. This, of course, will give impetus to the further sliding of the system into the abyss of neototalitarianism, which I have written several times. But there is no apparent need to rush into this legalization in this way. Putin having reigned “according to the concepts” for twenty years, he can be corrected for six more months. Even without constitutional amendments, it almost alone administers all of the security forces, governors and mayors.
Well, Russia would have lived without amendments for a few more months, as if it had not collapsed. And then, when everything had calmed down, they would be quickly and silently “tested”. It is common sense that this is not the time to bring this topic to the fore. And if you are already ready in June to smear the vote with a thick coat on the parade, then you did not have to take a steam bath with the two, respectively, in April and May, but you had to act “in the old Russian language”, after selling the two another immediately. After all, it is clear that in June the coronavirus will go nowhere, why then had to cut the tail of the constitutional cat into several parts?
There is no visible, obvious and rational reason to block this garden in June. It was possible to harvest a “constitutional harvest” without particular problems in the fall, without substituting criticism and accusations of neglect of people’s health. If the Kremlin is so self-confident, as he talks about it, if there is no real opposition to the regime, if there are enough reserves and the situation in the country is under control, then for three or four months, even six months, nothing matters about it. Something is wrong here.
Or the Kremlin has planned something for which this whole constitutional reform is nothing more than a screen – in this regard, it is curious to see how the leadership of united Russia refutes the incomprehensible rumors of early elections to the Duma and the rotation of Volodin to Medvedev. Or you have to assume that the reason for the rush is a purely irrational and inexplicable political joke. In the latter case, the rush to vote is revealing for the authorities. The Kremlin says there is no opposition to its power in Russia, but in reality it is afraid to postpone the adoption of the amendments for a few months.
And all of this despite the fact that neither a month, a semester, or even a year decides anything here – after all, the main point of the amendments is that Putin could run for president as early as 2024. It seems that the Kremlin’s actions have long been motivated by inexplicable fear. Whether or not there is a real reason for this fear – in politics, perception often plays a more important role than reality. The haste with which this dubious constitutional businessman is flogged testifies to the deep uncertainty of the Kremlin in itself, in its strengths, in the attractiveness of its policy. Haste, as you know, is only necessary to catch carriers of infection. Well, if, as a result of this turmoil, the Kremlin only made people laugh. But it can piss off …