Quarantine can deprive 800 million people of work


The organization does not reject rising unemployment

Quarantine can deprive 800 million people of jobs. Photo:

The International Labor Organization (ILO) announced several scenarios for the development of employment events in relation to quarantine. The worst forecast suggests that in the second half of 2020, about 340 million inhabitants of the planet may lose their jobs.

The ILO report states that in the second quarter of 2020, nearly 400 million full-time jobs were reduced due to quarantine (if you take a 48-hour work week). At the same time, May forecasts estimated a loss of 305 million jobs.

In the regional context, the second quarter attributed the loss of work time to: America (18.3%), Europe and Central Asia (13.9%), Asia and the Pacific (13.5%), Arab states (13.2%) and Africa (12.1). %).

According to new forecasts, the situation may be further (second half of 2020) Three development path:

Optimistic The rapid recovery of workers is included with a significant increase in aggregate demand and employment generation. In this scenario, a loss of 34 million jobs is possible.

Base scenario Predicts a gradual recovery of economic activity according to current forecasts, removal of restrictions for office work and the resumption of consumption and investment. Loss – 140 million full-time jobs.

Pessimistic Predicts a second wave of coronaviruses, the return of barriers that will significantly slow the economic recovery. The loss of jobs will amount to 340 million.

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Earlier, the head of the National Bank of Ukraine, Yakov Smoly, said that the unemployment rate in Ukraine would increase in the second quarter, to 11.5%, after which the figure would decrease in the second half of the year and overall, compared to the previous year Will be greater than, but less than 10. %

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