The culprits of the floods have been known for a long time. But they never answered once for their actions …

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The culprits of the floods have been known for a long time. But they never answered once for their actions …

Analytic

6/24/2020 6:09 PM

Ukrinform

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The messages from the natural disaster area at Ivano-Frankivsk, Chernivtsi, Lviv, Ternopil and the regions of Transcarpathia resemble first-line reports: several other rivers have left the banks … the bridge has been destroyed … the village was flooded … the transport connection was interrupted … the district hospital was evacuated … several lives … According to Prime Minister Denis Shmygal, who, along with officials, scientists and specialists, visited the flood zone on Wednesday, the magnitude of the current disaster exceeds the consequences of the 2008 flood … At a meeting of the Committee on Technogenic and Environmental Safety and Emergencies, a decision has been made to overcome the elementary consequences.

But these are already actions after the fact. It seems that Ukrainians have not learned to act effectively to prevent the 2008 flood and other similar cataclysms. Among the main causes of the current hydrological disaster are not only climatic and geographic characteristics, but also the influence of our ill-considered management. And climate change – here and not in Greta Tunberg – also depends mainly on anthropogenic interference. And it is a “merit” not only for the Ukrainians, but for all of humanity. Is it possible to minimize the magnitude of such emergencies in the future (they are unlikely to be completely avoided in the coming decades)? Or will our reaction be limited to overcoming the consequences and spending billions of dollars?

Scientists and experts – on the causes of “big water”

“The increase in the amount and, above all, the intensity of precipitation is one of the consequences of climate change that has occurred in recent years,” said Vera Balabukh, head of the Department of Applied Meteorology and Climatology at the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Institute of the CSNS and NASU, in a comment to Ukrinform. carried out by scientists in the framework of the projects “Climate change and security in the Dniester basin” and “Strategic guidelines for adaptation to climate change in the Dniester basin”. Observations in the mountainous region of Rakhiv in Transcarpathia, where this question has been studied more closely, have shown quite significant climatic changes. The threat of flooding associated with heavy rains is increasing. And, unfortunately, the forecasts come true … “

1. Climate change.

In 2016-2017, researchers noted that Dniester would suffer the most from climate change – warmer, wetter winters and hot, dry summer days. Lower Dniester is suffering more and more from drought. The number of dry spells in the past decade has increased considerably. And that means that the imbalances caused by the uneven intensity of precipitation are increasing. “Such consequences on water resources have a cascading effect – with the exception of the population – on agriculture (reduction in irrigation water reserves and increase in demand), energy (hydroelectric potential limited), tourism (water tourism), fishing and biodiversity “, note the researchers. But the main thing is the threat of flooding not only in the spring, but also at other times.

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Vera Balabukh

According to Vera Balabukh, this applies not only to the Carpathians, but also to Ukraine as a whole. In addition, both Europe and the entire northern hemisphere. Due to the difference in temperature of the air masses (cold air above and as warm as possible near the ground), more powerful cumulonimbus clouds are formed.

“In recent decades, in Transcarpathia, and particularly in the highlands, the surface air temperature has risen rapidly. This is due to an increase in minimum and maximum temperatures throughout the year. summer, there have been many more hot days when the air warms up to more than 25 degrees What we have now … The number of periods of heat and their duration increases. The temperature increases not only on the surface of the earth, but also in the lower troposphere. Where clouds form and precipitation occurs. And because of an increase in air temperature, the content increases. This results in an intensification of the processes of storm, hail and thunderstorms, “says Vera Balabukh. And all this – as soon as possible. After all, the number of rainy days per year is constantly decreasing. 30% of the annual precipitation in the Dniester basin is due to heavy and very heavy showers. Over the past 10 years, the “contribution” of this rain has increased by 7%.

2. Mountain factor.

In the Carpathians, the orographic factor is also superimposed on this process (relief, altitude, slope and direction of the slopes. – N.D.E.). In other words, dynamic convection is added when the same mountains affect the power of the clouds. The Carpathian mountain chain system is located on the path of the displacement of humid Atlantic air masses, which results in the dynamic effect of mountain slopes on air currents, inhibiting their “western transport -is “dominant. As a result, intensification of showers also occurs. When the amount of precipitation in 24 hours can exceed 2-3 monthly norm – 150-250 millimeters. If on the flat territory of Ukraine on average 400-600 millimeters of precipitation fall each year, then in the Carpathians – 1000-1600, and sometimes up to 2000-2400 millimeters.

According to the materials: ukrinform.ru

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