The new macroeconomic forecast promises inflation growth of 2.9% and unemployment of around 10%
The Cabinet is reviewing the 2020 budget to allocate additional funds to combat coronoviruses. It was announced by Prime Minister Dennis Shimgal.
The government has already approved an updated macroeconomic forecast. Its key parameters are as follows:
- Nominal GDP – 4 trillion UAH;
- Inflation growth – 2.9% (from 5.6% to 8.7%);
- Average annual rate – 29.5 UAH / dollar;
- Average monthly salary – 11 thousand UAH;
- Unemployment rate – 9.4%.
According to the Prime Minister, in the process of preparing a new forecast, experts from the Ministry of Economics consulted with experts from the Ministry of Finance, NBU, IMF and independent analytical organizations.
“Perhaps we are not satisfied with all the numbers, but already in the second half of the first year we are expecting an improvement in the economic situation,” the statement said.
Dragon Capital’s updated basic forecast for 2020 provides Ukraine’s 4% decline in GDP and hryvnia devaluation at the end of the year at $ 30 per dollar, provided quarantine measures are final by May (average rate of $ 29 / Is expected to reach the dollar, i.e. the devaluation will be about 11% below the previous year’s rate).
According to a less optimistic forecast, if quarantine is extended for a longer period, GDP may fall by 9%, and hryvnia will fall in value to 35 UAH / dollar. In such circumstances, an increase in unemployment can be expected.
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Recall that due to strict quarantine measures in the fight against coronoviruses, Kounrad was forced to change the budget and the program of the capital’s socio-economic development, with $ 300 million to support Kiev’s low-income residents. Allocation, about 3 million USD for the medical industry, UAH for another 780 million. Compensation for the loss of the transport industry.
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