The epidemic is expected to end in Ukraine on 8 June, but early quarantine withdrawal may ruin the forecast
Scientists at the Singapore University of Technology and Design and Data-Driven Development Lab have created an online resource to predict the end of the coronavirus epidemic in real-time.
For each country, the calculation is done individually, taking into account the current situation. Scientists use the SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) model, which uses data from different countries and decreases epidemic life cycles. Today you can find forecasts for 87 countries including Ukraine.
According to forecasts, Ukraine is expected to witness a sharp decrease in the incidence rate on 19 May, and the epidemic is expected to end before 8 June. Since schedules are constantly updated and adjusted according to the latest data, and the government plans to gradually weaken quarantine in the second third of May, the data may still shift significantly in the negative direction. Since quarantine cancellation can bring a new, strong surge in disease too early.
In general, scientists predict that the coronovirus epidemic in the world will decrease on May 29, at which date the incidence will drop by 97%, with the epidemic ending on November 26, at which time the number of patients is 100. % Is expected to decrease.
Summary PAYSPACE magazine
Recall that Prime Minister Dennis Shimgal shared a government roadmap to get Ukraine out of quarantine on his Telegram channel. According to the politician, the plan will cover 5 phases and may begin on May 11, subject to favorable epidemic conditions.
As the Prime Minister said, there are clear indicators at each stage and it depends on the dynamics of the spread of the disease.
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